Is Climate Change to Blame for West Coast Fires?
So begins a New York Times article written in 1995, detailing the influences of greenhouse gases on extreme weather events. Published over two decades ago, the “especially turbulent weather of recent years” writer William K. Stevens was referring to likely pales in comparison to the nightmarish natural disasters of today. 2020 kicked off with an apocalyptic scene in Australia, where at least 27 million acres of land and an estimated 1.25 billion animals were lost in weeks of ravaging bushfires.
Sparked by dry lightning, severe drought, and rising heat, the catastrophe would go on to be echoed months later by California and Oregon, which have had nearly three million acres and 36 lives taken by record-breaking fires that have yet to be contained. While fires in these parts of the world have always been common, they’ve grown increasingly frequent, intense, and destructive; and the fingerprints of climate change and environmental disconnects are all over the causes.
Here’s how:
1. Drought: Both the fires in Australia and those on the west coast inf the US came on the heels of extreme and extended droughts. California, a dry state to begin with, just recently experienced an “exceptionally dry winter season”, leaving its wild land vegetation parched and prime for burning.
“Fire,” as explained by Columbia University bio-climatologist, Park Williams, “ in some ways it is a very simple thing. As long as stuff is dry enough and there’s a spark, then that stuff will burn.” Long stretches of little rain have ensured places like Australia and California have plenty to set aflame.
2. Rising temperatures: We all know that greenhouse gases lead to hotter temperatures, and it should come as no surprise that hotter temperatures lead to drier fuels for wilder fires -- which is bad news for our ever-warming Earth. A recent study in Environmental Research Letters noted that over the last 40 years, California’s “average autumn temperatures increased by about 1 degree Celsius, and statewide precipitation dropped by about 30 percent.”
Such observations are exemplified by the heatwaves which baked California in the weeks prior to its most recent fires; among the hottest temperatures, Los Angeles county at a record-breaking 121 degrees Fahrenheit and Death Valley at 130 degrees Fahrenheit -- one of the highest temperatures ever recorded anywhere in the world.
3. Unusual weather: The LNU Lightning Complex fire and SCU Complex fire, which have been burning since August 16, were both sparked by powerful dry lightning storms which resulted from a collision between two weather systems -- “tropical moisture from the south and a high-pressure ridge from the east.”
An estimated 12,000 dry lightning strikes touched down in what climate scientist Daniel Swain of the Institute of Environment and Sustainability at UCLA called somewhat of a “freak storm.” In an interview with Science Mag, he went on to add, “We know there’s a climate signal in the background conditions that allowed that rare event to have the outcome it did.”
Once the fires started burning, the flames were stoked by strong winds, causing them to explode and spread quickly. Though off-shore winds, like California’s well-known Santa Ana winds, are not uncommon, they’re more dangerous than ever with climate change resulting in “enhanced odds that fuels are dry when strong wind events occur.”
4. Land mismanagement: California has never been a stranger to fire. Before European colonization, it’s estimated that 4.5m to 12m acres would burn annually -- though less intensely and over a longer period of time. “[Indigenous peoples] worked in partnership with nature,” said Don Hankins, a pyrogeographer and Plains Miwok fire expert at California State University, in an interview with the Guardian. Fires were intentionally set and controlled to clear out fire-fueling vegetation, renew the soil, and prevent bigger, runaway wildfires. When that practice was outlawed by colonizers in the 1880s, California’s forests became unnaturally dense and overcrowded. Today, when fires occur, there is much, much more fuel to burn. It seems counterintuitive, but decades of successful fire suppression have actually resulted in the out-of-control wildfires of today.
Ultimately, the fires of the West Coast were caused by much more than just a lightning strike or unusually dry season. They’re the result of decades of destructive environmental policies, a rapidly changing climate, and a deep-running disconnection between people and the land. It can be tempting to look at the West Coast fires and lump them in with the rest of what has led people to dub 2020 “the worst year ever”. But what if 2020 isn’t just unlucky? What if it’s the symptom of decades of environmental negligence, a sneak peek at what’s to come?
What if this is just the beginning?
If such were the case, then fast-forwarding a couple years might prove to be even scarier than staying put with the insane cocktail of disasters we’re dealing with today. But there’s still hope -- with the November election rapidly approaching and more incentive than ever to repair our relationship with the planet, now is the perfect time to step up and advocate for the changes we so desperately need it.
SOURCES:
Boxtall, B. “Fires of hell”: How dry lightening has sparked some of California’s biggest infernos. Los Angeles Times, August 23, 2020. https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-08-23/dry-lightning-northern-california-fire-scourge
Causes of Drought: What’s the climate connection? Union of Concerned Scientists, April 10, 2014. https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/drought-and-climate-change
Fountain, H. Looking, Quickly, for the Fingerprints of Climate Change. The New York Times, August 1, 2016. https://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/02/science/looking-quickly-for-the-fingerprints-of-climate-change.html
Gross, M. Climate change is increasing the likelihood of extreme autumn wildfire conditions across California. IOP Science, August 20, 2020. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab83a7/meta
K. Stevens, W. More Extremes Found in Weather, Pointing to Greenhouse Gas Effect. The New York Times, May 23, 1995. https://www.nytimes.com/1995/05/23/science/more-extremes-found-in-weather-pointing-to-greenhouse-gas-effect.html
Fovell, R. The Santa Ana Winds. UCLA, accessed September 18, 2020. http://people.atmos.ucla.edu/fovell/ASother/mm5/SantaAna/winds.htlm
Park Williams, A. Observed Impacts of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Wildfire in California. AGU: Advancing Earth and Space Science. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019EF001210
Pierre-Louis, K. Schwartz, J. Why does California have so many fires? The New York Times, September 18, 2020. nytimes.com/article/why-does-california-have-wildfires.html?searchResultPosition=18
Resnick, B. 8 things everyone should know about Australia’s wildfire disaster. Vox, January 22, 2020. https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/1/8/21055228/australia-fires-map-animals-koalas-wildlife-smoke-donate